Binyamin Netanyahu calls early general election in Israel

Israeli PM announces vote early next year, with campaign likely to focus on economy and security

Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israel prime minister, may be hoping for an increased mandate before any military action against Iran. Photograph: Baz Ratner/EPA

Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has called a general election early next year in a move designed to avoid a damaging defeat over a proposed austerity budget but also likely to give him a renewed and potentially increased mandate for military action against Iran.

"I have decided, for the benefit of Israel, to hold elections now and as quickly as possible," Netanyahu said at a press conference, without specifying the date of the poll.

Israel's economy and national security are the two issues likely to dominate the election campaign, with the question of a peace agreement with the Palestinians being pushed down the political agenda. The election is expected to be in late January or early February.

Netanyahu's party, Likud, is expected to comfortably win the largest share of the Israeli parliament's 120 seats, almost four years after the last election in February 2009. The prime minister had the option of waiting until next October before going to the electorate.

His coalition government has proved unexpectedly stable despite repeated threats by his small rightwing coalition partners to bring down the government. Under Israel's electoral system of proportional representation the leader of the biggest party will have to negotiate with smaller parties to form a new coalition government.

Netanyahu's decision to call early elections rests on two main domestic considerations. The first is the forthcoming national budget. The prime minister faces a struggle to get an austerity budget passed in the face of the warring interests of the smaller parties in his coalition who have an eye on their constituencies. He may believe it is better to call an election than see the government fall in the wake of the budget crashing in flames. The second concerns his political opponents. Kadima, the main opposition party, is currently floundering in the polls. The latest Haaretz survey gives it eight seats, down from 28 at the last election. Labour is the principal beneficiary, with its projected number of seats rising to 20 from 13.

But Netanyahu's Likud is predicted to be the biggest party by some measure in the 120-seat Knesset, with 28 seats. The prime minister's personal ratings on suitability to lead the next government are way ahead of those of his rivals.

On the assumption that Netanyahu forms the next coalition government, he may opt for a more centrist complexion than the current rightwing composition. After the last election Netanyahu's first move was to bring Kadima into the coalition, only resorting to the small religious parties when that failed. A "national unity" government may give him cover to pursue military action against Iran.

Iran is Netanyahu's primary issue. At the United Nations he publicly deferred the likely date of Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear programme until next spring or summer. Netanyahu will hope to win a renewed electoral mandate before such a high-risk move, rather than launch a potentially disastrous war in the months running up to a general election.

The outcome of the US election may also be a factor in Netanyahu's decision. If Barack Obama is re-elected in November, he may seek to punish the Israeli prime minister for his perceived support for the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. That approach will be harder if Netanyahu also has a renewed mandate.

Opposition parties will be keen to make the economy the significant issue of the election. Before Netanyahu's announcement the Labour leader, Shelly Yacimovich, said early elections would end an "unstable and unhealthy" situation.

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Ditulis oleh: Unknown - Tuesday, October 9, 2012